5 Pirates Puzzle

Five pirates are figuring out how to divide up a newly plundered treasure of 100 gold coins. From most senior to least senior: Pirate A, Pirate B, Pirate C, Pirate D, and Pirate E. The rules: The most senior pirate…

Wrong Seat Probability

There is a fully-booked flight with 100 seats. The first person decides to ignore the seat assignments, and sits in a random seat. Each subsequent person sits in their assigned seats if available, or sits in a random unoccupied seat…

Card Pairing Game

You are playing a game with your friend using a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Each round, you flip over two cards: If both cards are black, you keep the cards and earn one point. If both cards are…

Base Rate Fallacy

What is the Base Rate Fallacy? In simple terms, it’s a common error we make in assessing likelihoods due to (a) over-emphasizing the rate of something within a group and (b) under-emphasizing how common that group is in the first…

Pigeonhole Principle

The Pigeonhole Principle is a simple and elegant concept: If you place more than n pigeons into n pigeonholes, at least one of the pigeonholes must contain more than one pigeon. More generally, if you need to make more than…